tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3033288879708780106.post8383294481588066249..comments2023-04-07T05:19:44.951-04:00Comments on Yes Vermont Yankee: Nuclear vs. Gas Economics, a Three Year Projection. Guest post by Nick EscuMeredith Angwinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02737538041807740424noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3033288879708780106.post-22780199355659188712016-12-05T13:54:35.663-05:002016-12-05T13:54:35.663-05:00Another short note: I linked to this post on FB, a...Another short note: I linked to this post on FB, and a comment pointed out that we are already shipping much more gas to Mexico than we did a few years ago. The new pipelines leading to Mexico are probably helping stabilize or raise natural gas prices in the U.S. <br />http://www.theenergycollective.com/todayinenergy/2394314/new-u-s-border-crossing-pipelines-bring-shale-gas-to-more-regions-in-mexico<br />The bottom graph in that article shows Mexican imports of U.S. gas have increased from approx 1.8 Billion Cubic Feet (bcf) a day in 2013 to 4 bcf per day in 2016.<br /><br />Meredith Angwinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02737538041807740424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3033288879708780106.post-36115751998218468612016-12-05T12:52:28.338-05:002016-12-05T12:52:28.338-05:00Todd,
Basically since Vermont Yankee closed. Ver...Todd,<br /><br />Basically since Vermont Yankee closed. Vermont has 600,000 people, and Vermont Yankee made about 70% of the power produced in the state. Looking at it from the point of view of the grid, the grid used 5% more gas-fired power than it used when VY was running...lots of articles on this, some on my blog. Mike Twomey guest post on the gas substitution is very readable.<br /><br />Or you could say, 600,000 people in Vermont could be seen as 300,000 households. Then, 2/3 of the power (70% of power) switching to gas would be 200,000 households. As I said before, I trust this author and didn't check his figures, but that would be about right.<br /><br />MeredithMeredith Angwinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02737538041807740424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3033288879708780106.post-37383351411844116322016-12-05T12:39:54.297-05:002016-12-05T12:39:54.297-05:00Thanks for this important post! I find this point ...Thanks for this important post! I find this point critical, especially for environmentalists, but I am unclear of the timeframe? per year? since Vermont Yankee closing? "200,000 Vermont homes using electricity from natural gas instead of nuclear produce the following: 38,000 tons of NOx, 78,000 tons of SO2, 96,000 tons of CO2, and 104,000 tons of particulates"Todd Dhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16900940895435705853noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3033288879708780106.post-39730644942035764342016-11-30T09:58:06.219-05:002016-11-30T09:58:06.219-05:00Hi Gary
The author got in touch with me with some...Hi Gary<br /><br />The author got in touch with me with some references. Prices did indeed soar to $990 MWh on the Texas grid for a relatively short time in 2003. More relevant (to me at least) is that prices were $300 to $500MWh on the grid at that point, not counting the $990 spike. The author sent me some excerpts from ERCOT data (ERCOT is the Texas grid).<br /><br />To me, the message isn't about $100, $300, or $990 MWh. These are all dramatic numbers, of course. For me, the message is that gas prices are volatile, and beginning to export gas can definitely push them. We should also note that gas prices have stayed high for days, or months, or even years. And that exporting LNG can be another force that makes "cheap abundant natural gas, no problems" into a thing of the past.<br /><br />It's always "difficult to make predictions, especially about the future, " as Yogi Berra supposedly said. I wanted to publish this because I think that the effects of LNG exports on domestic gas prices are never discussed. Their effects may well be significant. <br />Meredith Angwinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02737538041807740424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3033288879708780106.post-51857707434864934272016-11-29T21:02:42.727-05:002016-11-29T21:02:42.727-05:00Gary, I didn't check the numbers. I admit it...Gary, I didn't check the numbers. I admit it. <br /><br />Looking at my old blog post, you can see that electricity prices track natural gas prices closely. A $6 natural gas price is a $40 MWh electricity price, and a $15 natural gas price is $100 MWh electricity price. <br /><br />http://yesvy.blogspot.com/2010/10/inconvenient-truth-about-vermont-yankee.html#.WD4u3DKZMUE<br /><br />(chart for New England near the bottom of the post.)<br /><br />Looking beyond New England: Henry Hub prices also show natural gas prices spending several years bouncing between $5 and $8, and down around $2 now.<br />https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdd.htm<br /><br />To me, that $990 does look high. I think the point is that we shouldn't assume $2 gas is here to stay.<br /><br />Meredith Angwinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02737538041807740424noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3033288879708780106.post-87326911695685538072016-11-29T20:09:58.222-05:002016-11-29T20:09:58.222-05:00Please explain how natural gas electricity product...Please explain how natural gas electricity production cost could drop from $990 to $28.50/MWh? Is the $990 really correct? If so, it makes a strong case for natural gas getting much more expensive.<br /><br />Otherwise, it's a strong argument for mothballing nuclear reactors in the current unprofitable economic environment, as opposed to permanently decommissioning them. All relevant state Public Service Commissions need to be made aware of this before approving nuclear station decommissioning due to short-term unprofitability. Natural gas WILL get more expensive.<br />Gary Kahanaknoreply@blogger.com