Once again, I will tell this blog in a series of pictures.
In my blog of December 27, I showed a snapshot of the New England grid in the early evening. The temperature at my location was 7 degrees, the local marginal prices (LMP) on the grid were running around $200 MWh (20 cents per kWh), oil was 22% of the fuel mix, renewables were 11% of the fuel mix (I remarked that this was on the high side for renewables) and the high renewable percentage was due to the wind energy. Wind was 50% of the renewables. The blog post was Successful encouragement of oil on the New England Grid. The source of all the information (except the local weather) was the ISO-NE web page, ISOExpress.
That post was on December 27. Yesterday, December 28, I noted that the percentage of oil had gone up above 30%, and the portion of renewables had gone down. But I didn't write another blog post. My snapshot is below. (Double click on any graphic to enlarge it.)
|December 28 fuel mix|
Getting Colder, and Oil Use Stays High
Today, around 1 pm, the temperature was 1 degree, as show below. The weather had gotten colder.
|1 p.m. December 29 temperature|
|1 pm December 29 prices on the grid|
Oil use has stayed high, from December 28 evening (above) to one pm December 29, (when I took a bunch of screen shots) to right now at 3 pm. Oil has been between 30 and 32% of the grid.
|December 29, oil is around 30% of grid power|
Not as much wind on the grid
What about the renewables? On December 27, a windy day, renewables were at 11% of the grid, and wind was 50% of renewables. (See my December 27 post for the graphics on this.)
Today, at one pm, not so much wind. It was actually snowing rather gently. At that time, renewables were only 7% of the grid power, and wind was only 13% of renewables.
|Renewable mix on the grid. Wind at 13%.|
I think oil use will remain high until the cold weather is over, about a week from now. The wind may spring up again in the evenings, or it may not. Whichever it chooses. Nobody controls the wind. So renewables may continue at 7% or go up to 11% again.
On the other hand, we haven't really hit peak demand yet. Here's a screen shot that I just took. This is the ISO-NE estimate of system loads today, and the actual loads up until 3 p.m.
|System loads, as forecast|
Here's the link for these real time updates from ISO-NE, ISO Express. https://www.iso-ne.com/isoexpress/
Isn't it nice that you can store oil on site? Maybe someone will notice what Rickover noticed: you can store nuclear fuel even more easily than you can store oil! I wouldn't hold my breath for people to notice this. (/snark)
Meanwhile, I will check back at about the grid at 6 p.m. but I won't be posting. I leave the evening results as "an exercise to the reader."