The Politics in Vermont

In between the High Holy Days and a reconciliation hymn for September 11, my mind has been elsewhere. It's been somewhere spiritual. Somewhere positive.

Time to bring my thoughts back in balance. No more harmony-with-the-universe stuff.

Time for politics in Vermont.

Governor of Vermont

The Democratic primary was a five way race, with Shumlin ahead of Racine by about 200 votes. The recount finished two days ago. Shumlin also won the recount, again by 200 votes.

Shumlin will run again the Republican Brian Dubie for governor this November. A few things to note:

• Shumlin won by 200 votes out of 75,000 cast.
• Dubie has released his financial statement, and Shumlin seems reluctant to release his own.
• Shumlin spent about $230,000 of his own money on his primary campaign. In Vermont, that's a lot of money. Dubie's warchest, including money from the Republican Governors Association, was about one million dollars shortly before the primary.

For those who tuned in late: Shumlin is eager to shut down Vermont Yankee and Dubie wants to keep it. This excellent Vermont Digger article about Dubie and Shumlin describes the issues around revealing financial statements. The article also describes a new soft-money not-for-profit which is active against Vermont Yankee. And against Brian Dubie.

Soft Money

Green Mountain Future is the new not-for-profit, apparently designed expressly to funnel soft money into the campaign against Vermont Yankee and against Brian Dubie. Political campaign contributions must be revealed. Campaign contributions are supposed to be visible to the public. However, contributions for not-for-profits do not have to be revealed. Green Mountain Future can take any amount of money, from anywhere, and not say very much about who gave that money. This is a great advantage in a political campaign. Of course, such organizations are not supposed to participate in political campaigns.

In this case, a Green Mountain Future anti-Vermont Yankee TV ad is now running on many stations in Vermont. The final words of the ad are "Tell Brian Dubie No." Yet somehow, this is not political. As Terri Hallenbeck of the Burlington Free Press says in a blog post: In the world of fine lines, a nonprofit can weigh in on policy but not come out and tell you who to vote for.

Interesting. If you don't say "vote for Joe," you CAN say "Tell Jim No." You are still an educational-charitable not-for-profit. You didn't actually tell anyone who to vote for, right? Just who to vote against...

And In Conclusion (I hope not)

The Brattleboro Reformer just ran an interesting article called Want a high-paying job? Move to Massachusetts. Thank you to Vermont Tiger blog for leading me to this article.

Lotus Blossom graphic from Wikimedia

September 11 and Some Notes

September 11

I can't forget it happened. I don't want it to be a call to war. So I fall back on what I did on the first anniversary of September 11.

I had volunteered to teach a noon yoga class once a week at TIBCO software while they looked for a more qualified teacher. About a dozen people came to my class regularly, including six or seven people from India. Most of the Indian class members were Hindu, but there was one Sikh. He wore a simple headcovering in yoga class, not his turban.

When I first realized that I was going to be teaching on the anniversary, I almost cancelled class. I didn't know what to do. Ignore it? Moment of silence? What?

Finally, I decided to remember the day by using Gandhi's favorite hymn, Raghupati Raghav Raja Ram which he and his followers sang on the Salt March. The original hymn was dedicated completely to Rama. Gandhi added a healing reference to Allah. (That's the kind of thing he would do.)

Beloved, praise Sita and Rama,

God or Allah is your name, (meaning that the supreme can be called by many names)

Lord, bless everyone with this wisdom.

It worked out well in the yoga class that day. All the people from India knew this song and its meaning and its connection to Gandhi. I started the class terrified of singing in public. But when everyone joined in, the lifted voices were warm and loving. One woman in particular had a beautiful voice, and I learned that she had studied Hindu chanting for many years. After the September 11 class, I began asking her to lead a chant near the end of each yoga class.

If I hadn't decided we would sing Raghupati, I would never have known about her voice and her knowledge.

May today be a day of healing for all, and of openness to learning from others.

A Few Notes

The 18th Carnival of Nuclear Energy is now posted at the new blog, ANS Nuclear Cafe. I am particularly fond of Charles Barton's post about pro-nuclear activists: we are people with a viewpoint, not "shills." Steve Aplin of Canadian Energy Issues also reviews anti-nuclear propaganda, a post with the intriguing title Poisoned Rats Aren't Ham. Visit the Carnival! Always something new! Always something interesting!

I also want to point Rod Adams blog today. Rod challenged Mark Cooper of Vermont Law School in a conference call. Cooper, a sociologist, writes papers containing slanted economics of nuclear power. (Cooper often quotes Mr. Lovins, that famous economist.) In this call, Rod asks Cooper one question and he is supposed to be able to ask a follow-up after receiving an answer. He can't ask the follow-up. It doesn't happen. He tries to get back in the queue, he tried everything. No dice.

A technical glitch, no doubt, which was peculiar to Rod's connection.

I also like Rod's post because there's a picture of me in it. It's the jolly group of bloggers in France. In the picture, we are standing in front of the new construction at Flamanville. As I disclosed earlier, Areva paid the majority of my expenses on the trip to France.

A Good and Sweet Year

For the Jewish New Year, Rosh Hashanah, I wish everyone a good and sweet year of health, happiness and peace.

Friends in Israel, one of whom is a professional photographer, sent me this picture yesterday. It was part of their New Year's email of good wishes. It shows a Sea Daffodil, flowering in August despite temperatures in the 90s and months without rain. (Months without rain is standard for a Middle Eastern summer.) The flower is in the amaryllis family, and many people believe it may be the Rose of Sharon, since Sharon is on the coast of the Mediterranean. It is so beautiful that I wanted to share it on my blog.

May we all have joy, health, and unexpected beauty this year.

And to everyone who reads this, I send the traditional greeting for a good year:

L'Shana Tova.

Photograph Copyright to Elisheva Werner-Reiss, and used with her permission.

Tuesday Blue Ribbon: Suzy Hobbs of PopAtomic Studios

A week ago, I started a new feature on this blog. Monday Blue Ribbon, People Making a Difference to Nuclear. My idea is to honor people who are making a difference to nuclear power. It's easy enough to "cover" only the negative. I think: I admire what that person is doing. Then I don't bother to write about it.

Monday Blue Ribbon is my way of giving credit to those who inspire me. I hope this feature inspires others, and helps my readers start their week in an upbeat manner. However, for me, it really comes down to gratitude.

(Yes. I know the feature is running on Tuesday this week. That's because Monday was a holiday.)

Suzy Hobbs, Art, and Reshaping the Vision of Atomic Energy

When I first heard of PopAtomic Studios, back in February of this year, the website did not include the name of the artist. The site had strong art showing nuclear in a positive light, but no named artist. As Rod Adams noted in a February blog post about PopAtomic, this is a quote from her website at the time:

I currently live in an aggressively liberal city and have lefty leanings myself aside from this one issue. That said, the anti-nuclear sentiment in my community makes this experiment particularly challenging. If you know who I am please do not mention my personal info.......Lord knows I don’t want any trouble.

Out of the Closet and Into the Limelight

After a month or two, though, Suzy Hobbs came out of hiding, and began to acknowledge and grow PopAtomic Studios. It is still a small place, and the artists haven't given up their day jobs yet, but what a change there has been in a few months!

• There are five or six artists contributing to the Studio at any time. Several are listed on PopAtomic's Biography page. Mel Chin, conceptual artist who specializes in public installations and earthworks, is one of Suzy's mentors and will contribute to PopAtomics next exhibit. Dawn Dalto is teaching Suzy slip-casting techniques for a sculpture project involving graphite from the original Chicago Pile 1 reactor. Suzy informs me that these sculptures will be available to order next month.
• The studio has an Etsy shop on-line, with T-shirts and tote bags for sale. The shop even includes some underwear with the PopAtomic logo. This may be a product for people who want to wear a pro-nuclear logo, but not visibly. People who don't want any trouble?
• PopAtomic designs posters, ads, and logos. The most recent poster, Green Footprint, is shown below. Other posters are shown on their website.
• The studio looks forward to bigger art, including public installation art, such as Mel Chin has built. Among other things, Suzy hopes to paint some cooling towers. Her ideas for the Bellefonte Station cooling towers are shown above. These colors were inspired by Mark Rothko and Color Field painting.
• The PopAtomic studio is organizing as a not-for-profit, with a very distinguished board of advisers.
• Suzy has brought Atomic Art outreach into the schools with great success. I learned a great deal about how to get people engaged with nuclear in her blog post Art Based Nuclear Outreach Proves Successful.
• Suzy recently was invited to visit Idaho National Laboratories. This visit will undoubtedly lead to more art and more contracts in the near future.
• PopAtomic Studios has a beautiful website which is always worth exploring. For example, I just discovered the blog ChickenFist (Blue Collar Art) on the blogroll.

Suzy Hobbs as an Inspiration

I urge you all to visit the PopAtomic Etsy store and buy something, or order your next logo or website banner from PopAtomic.

However, as I wrote this, I realized that the list above felt a little like a resume. PopAtomic does this, PopAtomic does that. That's not enough. I have to answer the question: "Why does PopAtomic inspire me so much?"

Suzy Hobbs and PopAtomic inspire me because they carry the pro-nuclear message in an entirely new way, an artist's way. The bright colors themselves are part and parcel of the message.

The problem with me is that I am geeky to the core. Many of the other pro-nuclear bloggers are the same. We honestly think we can sway people with facts and numbers. Suzy Hobbs and PopAtomic Studios reminds me that it takes more than numbers to persuade people. It takes art, and it takes heart.

Thank you, Suzy Hobbs!

All images on this post are copyright to Suzy Hobbs of PopAtomic Studios, and used with permission. Contact Ms. Hobbs through PopAtomic if you seek permission to use these images.

Vermont Yankee, Reliability and Connecticut: De-Mystified

ISO-NE Insists on Vermont Yankee

Yesterday's post described how ISO-NE (the New England grid operator) required Vermont Yankee to stay in the 2013 forward electricity auction. Yankee had asked to drop out because it has neither a license renewal nor a certificate of public good past 2012. ISO-NE, however, said that Yankee had to stay in the auction because

with or without Vermont Yankee, the system in Vermont has reliability issues that must be addressed; without Vermont Yankee in service, those issues are more severe and could affect neighboring areas.

Since ISO-NE cannot actually force Vermont Yankee to operate, I found this puzzling. I decided to try to understand this incident in a broader context. Or at least, understand it at all.

The Measurement of Reliability

As I did when I was confused about the Hydro-Quebec contracts, I called David Lamont at Vermont Department of Public Service. As before, Lamont was thoughtful, clear and complete, and gave me much more information than I can put in a blog post. Here, greatly paraphrased, are my questions and his answers.

Q. I thought the ISO just dispatches electricity. How can they keep a plant in the energy auction if the plant says it doesn't want to participate, or can't participate?

A. ISO does that if the grid would have reliability issues without the plant.

Q. What do you mean by reliability issues? I mean, I'm not trying to quote the opponents or anything, but the plant does go on refueling outages and electricity continues to flow.

A. ISO judges reliability by the N minus one minus one method. Basically, when the system is running at full capacity, that is the baseline: N or Normal. It should be able to withstand a problem with a large transmission line (minus one) and still be capable of running properly. If a second major element (usually a transmission line) goes down, everything should still work as expected. That is, we plan for N minus one, and minus one again. That's the level of reliability we build into the system. That's how it's designed.

For the southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire, northern Massachusetts area, we meet that criteria now. But not with very much to spare.

Q. And without the plant?

A. ISO is concerned that the N minus one minus one criteria would not be met if the plant were permanently removed from the system.

Opinion: I didn't ask Lamont this, but I think that if the plant were to have an unexpected outage in the middle of the summer, that would be a minus one condition right there, but they would still meet the second minus one condition. But if the plant weren't there, the plant-outage condition would be baseline, and the grid couldn't take two minus-ones on top of that.

Q. But if the plant is not allowed to operate by the Senate, I don't see it helps anything to have the ISO telling it that it must "stay in the auction." Looks to me like the grid is just going to get a little riskier there, and there's not much the ISO can do about it.

A. No. If it were certain the plant was not going to be available, ISO would have to do something to keep the grid reliable. They would almost certainly have to pull in temporary resources.

Q. ISO would pull in temporary resources? What do you mean?

A. You know, things like gas turbines and diesels and other generating systems that can be moved in quickly. They would probably send out an RFP (request for proposals) for emergency generation. That's what they did in Connecticut.

Q. Connecticut?

A. In 2003, ISO-NE determined that Southern Connecticut had a lot of load growth, but not enough transmission lines. Reliability was compromised. ISO sent out an RFP called Request for Proposals For Southwest Connecticut Emergency Capability. ISO is required to keep the system reliable.

NOTE: I have attempted to summarize what Mr. Lamont said. I do not have a recording of our phone call. Any mistakes that are found in this summary are completely my own.

An RFP for Fossil

Instead of continuing to paraphrase Mr. Lamont here, I shall quote some other sources and give some opinions.

Here's what ISO said in the auction press release, about what would happen if Vermont Yankee was out of the picture:

These alternatives could include interim solutions such as emergency generation brought into Vermont temporarily, more expensive generation from outside Vermont, and demand-side resources. Long-term solutions would include transmission line upgrades as well as other possible solutions, such as private development of new generation, increased energy efficiency, and new sources of imported power. All these options will come at an additional cost.

I further quote from the Connecticut RFP about the types of generation they sought (and found) for Connecticut when Southwestern Connecticut no longer met the ISO reliability standards:

Eligible Resources: Five types of resources are qualified to provide the service contemplated in this solicitation. These resources are (a) new quick-start peaking capacity, (b) incremental quick-start capability at existing resources, (c) demand response resources capable of 10- minute or 30-minute dispatch response and eligible to participate in one of the LRP programs that provides for Installed Capacity (“ICAP”) credit, (d) emergency generators capable of 10- minute or 30-minute dispatch response and eligible to participate in one of the LRP programs that provides for ICAP credit, or (e) C&LM projects that result in permanent load reduction sduring on-peak periods defined in Section 6.4. Existing capacity and C&LM projects are prohibited from providing the services contemplated in this RFP.

The Bottom Line

If ISO-NE decides that Vermont Yankee is not going to continue to be available, it would probably have to send out an RFP for Vermont similar to this RFP sent for Connecticut. ISO-NE will keep the grid going, at the cost of emergency generators of various kinds, probably diesel and gas-fired. Wind and solar do not meet the dispatch requirements described above, and coal and nuclear aren't put into place very quickly.

Of course, the dispatch requirements might be different in the Connecticut RFP and in a (theoretical) Vermont RFP in the future. However, we have one model RFP here, and it looks pretty much like "bring me your diesels."

I think that the ISO-NE kept Vermont Yankee in the auction because the alternative was issuing an emergency generation RFP. They don't want to do that until they are absolutely sure it is needed.

Emergency Generation and Renewables

Plant opponents claim that Vermont Yankee prevents renewables from happening. They claim that Vermont would be filled with solar and cow power if only Vermont Yankee didn't exist.

Actually, the future without VY is probably an RFP for emergency diesel and gas fired generation. Next time the plant opponents start to paint rosy pictures of solar panels and wind turbines, ask them about Southern Connecticut. Ask them about diesels.

--------------------

Important Update

After reading this post, Mr. Lamont sent me an email which explained some other issues. I am very grateful for his review and clarification!

1) An RFP for emergency generation is one of the options that ISO has used in the past to ensure grid reliability. We cannot predict that an RFP would be the option chosen if Vermont Yankee is not available. For example, ISO would also look at transmission line upgrades, load interruption, or other fixes. These may or may not be possible.

2) Reliability improvements will cost money. Ratepayers have to pay for diesel generators, transmission upgrades, etc. Saying that "ISO will issue a request for proposal" may be misleading: ISO does not pay for this sort of improvement, but the cost is shared among ratepayers. Depending on the type, location or cause of the upgrade, it is also possible that a subset of ratepayers (Vermont) can be assessed these charges, or they can be shared by all.

3) Like most power plants, VY plans its outages for the shoulder seasons (spring and fall) when the load is lowest. However, grid reliability is assessed for more extreme weather conditions, usually defined as load equivalent to the load on the 90th percentile hottest day on record. The fact that the grid continues to operate when VY is out of service does not mean that the plant is not needed for reliability. It means that the plant was not out of service during an extreme weather event when several other pieces of load support equipment were unavailable as well.

Transmission Line and Diesel Generator from Wikimedia.

Vermont Yankee and the Grid. ISO-NE Knows We Need Yankee

The Auction and the Drop-Out

On August 30, ISO-NE held an auction for power supplies in 2013-2014, the Forward Capacity Market Auction. ISO-NE is the grid manager for New England, responsible for power supply and grid stability. As ISO-NE announced in a press release that day, Vermont Yankee dropped out of the auction. Actually they didn't drop out forever. Yankee attempted to do a "dynamic delist" from the auction, which could be temporary.

This led to a certain amount of speculation. What was the plant's motivation for dropping out? Why didn't they drop out months ago? The plant isn't making much money, maybe that's the reason they dropped out?

In my opinion, the plant explained itself well. According to the Rutland Herald, Entergy spokesman Larry Smith said that: Entergy requested not to participate in the auction because Vermont Yankee’s license to operate from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and its certificate of public good from the state of Vermont both expire in 2012 and have not been renewed.

Withdrawing from the auction doesn't mean the plant won't operate past its current license expiration date, but it does mean that the plant isn't promising to operate past that date. The plant refused to make a promise that it might not be able to keep. To me, that seems honorable.

Except, of course, that Vermont Yankee did participate in the auction. ISO New England wouldn't allow VY to drop out.

ISO Keeps Vermont Yankee in the Auction

ISO New England insisted that Vermont Yankee remain in the auction. A few quotes from their press release about the auction:

If the ISO’s reliability analysis shows that the resource is needed, it is not allowed to withdraw from the capacity market....

Vermont Yankee

....Studies for future system needs in Vermont and New Hampshire have been ongoing for more than a year and are being updated to reflect the possibility of a Vermont Yankee shutdown in order to identify impacts on the regional power system. The studies completed so far have shown that with or without Vermont Yankee, the system in Vermont has reliability issues that must be addressed; without Vermont Yankee in service, those issues are more severe and could affect neighboring areas...ISO New England does not have authority to require Vermont Yankee to operate without the appropriate permits and licenses, but it does have the responsibility to ensure a reliable power system. This responsibility requires the ISO to develop alternative solutions...These alternatives could include interim solutions such as emergency generation brought into Vermont temporarily, more expensive generation from outside Vermont, and demand-side resources.... All these options will come at an additional cost....

As one Vermont blogger put it: Life Without Yankee would be..expensive, chaotic, and occasionally dark.

What Is Reliability, Though?

I have an inquiring mind, which is sometimes a liability. I agree with ISO-NE that we need Vermont Yankee, but I really didn't understand it all.

How does ISO-NE judge reliability? Have other areas of New England ever had reliability problems? If they had problems, what did ISO-NE do about it? Why did ISO-NE keep Vermont Yankee in the auction, if there is a chance that Vermont Yankee won't be operating?

These questions will be answered, but they deserve a post to themselves. Stay tuned for the post on reliability. N minus 1 minus 1.

The Seventeenth Blog Carnival Of Nuclear Energy

The Seventeenth Blog Carnival of Nuclear Energy is up at Next Big Future. New types of reactors, safety on the job in the energy industry. Great stuff! Read and enjoy. Nothing like a Carnival on Labor Day.

Transmission line graphic from Wikimedia

Carousel at Avignon, again.

A New Blog and New Signs. It's a New Year!

Well, it's not actually a new year (Rosh Hashanah) until the middle of next week, but there are new things happening now about Vermont Yankee and nuclear.

New Signs of Support for Vermont Yankee

One of the problem with being FOR Vermont Yankee is...what could you do about it? The opponents had signs and posters and pins and...

But that's old news! That was so Last Year. The New News is that Entergy finally got some signs together for plant supporters. Some signs, some bumper stickers, some campaign buttons, some refrigerator magnets. These all have a simple message:

VY4VT

Entergy quickly gave all their first-printing of these materials to local supporters. They ordered more, however, and the order just came in. You get some of these for yourself and your family. You can adorn your car, lawn, lapel and refrigerator with your support of the plant. Let's be visible!

The email address to ask for pins, bumper stickers, etc is here.

American Nuclear Society Blog

The American Nuclear Society (ANS) has a new blog. the ANS Nuclear Cafe. Cafe is a great word, because it means "a place to have coffee and informal meals" and it also means a place to have small informal public discussions. My husband and I have talked about starting a version of Cafe Scientifique in this area, but it has just been one-of-the-things-we-talked-about. I welcome the ANS Nuclear Cafe blog.

Well, I admit it. I also welcome it because I will be one of the bloggers. ANS acknowledges that what is happening in Vermont is important beyond the borders of Vermont. The new blog will include a View From Vermont on a regular basis. Howard Shaffer (often a guest blogger on this blog) and I will be co-blogging the feature.

Dan Yurman of Idaho Samizdat was instrumental in getting this ANS blog going. Dan and Laura Scheele of ANS Outreach will be in charge of it. Dan has a very informative post about the new Nuclear Cafe, listing some of the guest bloggers, including yours-truly. Rod Adams of Atomic Insights will blog about the view from Washington. The absolutely amazing Ted Rockwell of Learning About Energy will also be blogging. Also, Nuclear Cafe will host the Blog Carnival of Nuclear Energy once a month.

The blog is on my blog roll already, and I look forward to following it.

Double-espresso image from Wikimedia commons.